when Paul fails to win the nomination, who are the cultists going to blame?

That very good question should start to get an answer fairly soon. Unless the "election system" has far less "rigging" than I expect it does, RP may not end up with enough in Iowa to qualify for the NH Fox (or ABC) Forum. Which could impact his results there as well.

In "practical political" terms, if a candidate does not have stalwarts to act as poll watchers at each precinct/ward where voting (and more importantly vote tallying) takes place, what likelihood exists for that candidate to carry those precincts or wards?